What the reemergence of the firefly can teach us about data

What the reemergence of the firefly can teach us about data

As the evening begins, the shadows start to merge. The sun has yielded to the evening's intimidation, as speckles of random lights appear, followed by what seems like a predictable disappearance. Fireflies. For many, these biochemical, luminescent insects evoke a nostalgic rush that includes memories of mason jars, sweaty shirts, and laughter. They seem to be back, and as I try to imagine what they would be saying as part of their comeback, I couldn’t stop thinking they would be collectively saying, I am back bitches. Confident and a little arrogant, an obvious tone of attitude against all the doubters who thought they were done and out.

Fireflies are back

For many of us, we have had conversations on a patio or around a fire pit regarding how the fireflies had vanished. We may have heard, hypothesized, or read how pesticides, light pollution, or habitats influenced their population. The data collected painted a dim picture that predicted the future.

Yet, in the last few summers, there’s been a noticeable shift. Was the historical data wrong? Was our subset of data too small? Or has the historical data adapted to change?

Although quantitative data on firefly populations are not available for most species, a growing number of anecdotal reports suggest that, in some regions, firefly populations have declined in recent decades. - Illuminating patterns of firefly abundance using citizen science data and machine learning models. - Illuminating patterns of firefly abundance using citizen science data and machine learning models, ScienceDirect

In 2023, the Firefly Watch Community Science Project reported a significant increase in sightings in several regions across the United States, particularly in the Midwest and Northeast. Papers, advocacy groups, and other forms of research have indicated a slight favorable shift. Anecdotal reports and social media posts are showing them more often in our neighborhood yards, around a quiet marsh, or within our farmland. I am back bitches.

I am back bitches

Their resilience and quantifiable rebound show that we should not always rely on data to indicate future results. It shows that past data is not always an indication of future trends. The past is strictly the past, and most data that we use is inherently retrospective. Whether it is economic, behavioral, or environmental, it tells us what has happened, not what could happen.

The firefly’s return, though subtle and still uncertain, is a visual case study in the limits of historical data. If we were to only look at the last 30 years of charts and reports, we might foreshadow their extinction. But nature, like manufacturing, doesn’t always follow a linear path.

How history might not impact the future

In manufacturing, adaptation to missions, behavioral shifts, and business cycles all play roles in results that static data can’t always predict. Forecasting is the art of peering into possibility while respecting what is in the mirror. It’s not about ignoring the past, but it is about refusing to be directly dependent on it. It means combining data with vision, adding how changes in X’s will impact Y’s, and layering observation with a little imagination.

Well, you folks is goin' in the wrong direction. What kind of chucklehead told you to go this a way. - Ray, The Princess and the Frog

Some call this an ability to forecast with fortitude or the ability to couple data with courage, creativity, and critical thinking. It’s how market leaders anticipate trends and apply correction curves to adapt before they make a decision. 

The gentle return of fireflies is a quiet reminder that data doesn't always define destiny. Yes, we must study the past and thoroughly understand what happened. But we must also leave room for rebound, resurgence, and rebirth. In a world increasingly dependent on automated dashboards and charting that show us results, let the firefly be a spark of humility for the future. Not everything that glows can be forecasted, but with the right mindset, maybe some of it can.