Lou Brown and the Gambler's Fallacy

Lou Brown and the Gambler's Fallacy

In the 1989 film Major League, manager Lou Brown, played by James Gammon, offers a dry, underappreciated definition of momentum.

We won a game yesterday. If we win today, that's two in a row. If we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before. Lou Brown, Major League

Coach Brown’s clarity in the moment works because it serves as a reality check, reminding the team that the outcomes of the next two games are within their control. With no crazy magic or mystic power, the result that they can all rally towards is simply the outcome of a sequence of events.

In any business environment or in many aspects of life, we rarely see these “winning streaks” so plainly. We mythologize these winning streaks or classify them as just a sequence of luck. We tend to insert a spiritual framework of luck or accept that it is inevitable that we will lose the next one. What creeps into this type of mindset is the gambler’s fallacy.

The gambler’s fallacy is a cognitive bias in which we believe that past independent outcomes influence future ones. If we start up a production unit 11 times in a row with no issues, we are doomed to have a crappy startup next week. If a coin lands on heads five times in a row, we are likely to assume tails is “due.” The problem with the gambler’s fallacy is that probability doesn’t carry emotional memories.

Each start-up of an operating unit is dependent on the attention to detail the team puts into the plan before starting up. Each game’s outcome is directly dependent on playing each snap to the best of our abilities and the mindset of doing the small details perfectly. Each situation is dealt with its own merits and the efforts we put into it to improve our chances. Lou Brown understood something many leaders forget: a winning streak is simply a series of independent wins.

Leaders can fall into the gambler’s fallacy in two primary ways. The first is from a mindset that “we are due” for the inevitable. We are due for something to break. We are due for a safety incident. Alternatively, leaders may try to convince themselves that success is imminent and decrease the intensity still required to rebound. This leads to a loosening of their strategies and slippage in their attention to detail. Inevitably, the lack of focus results in the situation getting worse.

The second way that leaders fall victim to the gambler’s fallacy is that after a series of wins, the leaders tend to brace for collapse. The leader sees the accomplishments in the rear-view mirror and accepts an anxiety that repeats, “It can’t last much longer.” This is a mindset that is preparation for a “woe is me” excuse. This distorts the leader's mindset by flooding it with conservatism, risk aversion, and over-correction. It is accepting cruise control, knowing that hazards lie ahead.

Momentum and finding the mojo are real. It is organic and created by leaders and followers, and is not some mystical condition. A team’s inertia exists by reinforcing expected behaviors. It exists in the mindset of holding oneself responsible versus depending on someone else to hold you accountable. This momentum is not probability bending in your favor, but instead the disciplined repetition of action. Lou Brown didn’t promise a third win, but instead acknowledged the possibility: “It has happened before.” It was up to each individual on the team to achieve the desired outcome.

Got to keep on risin'

Mr. Mojo Risin', Mr. Mojo Risin',

Mojo Risin',

Gotta Mojo Risin'

Mr. Mojo Risin', gotta keep on risin'

Risin', ridin'

Gone ridin', ridin'

Come on ridin', ridin'

I gotta ridin', ridin'

Well, ridin', ridin'

I gotta woo! Hey, yeah

Whoa, yeah

The Doors, L.A. Woman